Several good rainfall showers early in the third quarter of 1999 alleviated the dry conditions to some extent. Although precipitation was below normal in the winter-rainfall region, above-normal precipitation was experienced in this region towards the end of the third quarter. Over most parts of the country, temperatures were higher than normal. During September 1999, the southern parts of the Western Cape experienced severe drought and the conditions for winter crops, especially wheat, were unfavourable.

In general, rainfall increased during the last quarter over most of the country. Heavy downpours occurred at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 1999 along the KwaZulu-Natal coast, which resulted in flooding in some areas. Showers also brought relief from dry and hot conditions having been experienced in the central and western Free State and large parts of the Northern Cape. However, unfavourable rainfall conditions persisted over the main summer crop production areas. The planting dates were seriously delayed in many parts, as further rain was needed to improve the moisture in the topsoil.

A La Niña year was predicted for 2000. A La Niña usually leads to rain in the first part of the season, followed by a dry period. Good rainfall during January 2000 improved the soil moisture and also the levels of most of the dams in the country. These favourable conditions across much of the maize-producing areas benefited the establishment and late development of summer crops and improved prospects for the crop. During February, the cyclone Eliñe brought the most devastating floods seen in decades in South Africa. These unexpected heavy storms caused flooding in the Northern Province, Mpumalanga and North West Province, but the impact on field crops was not severe.

Across the summer crop producing area, late rains occurred during the second quarter of 2000 and boosted soil moisture reserves. Night temperatures were also lower than normal because of the wet weather. These conditions had an adverse effect on the growth of the maize plants and on kernel mass development and made the crop vulnerable to adverse weather changes. Several problems with grades of maize were experienced and the low heat units also caused the maize crop to dry very slowly.

During the 1999/2000 production season, a substantial increase in hectares planted to maize coupled with above-normal and timely rainfall, realised in an estimated crop of 10,1 million tons for commercial maize. This represents a 38,6% increase as against the 1998/99 crop, with an average yield of 3,14 t/ha. The production of sorghum increased by an estimated 94%, from 183 000 tons in 1998/99 to 355 000 tons in 1999/2000, with a national yield of 2,57 t/ha. The groundnut crop decreased by an estimated 7,2% to 115 100 tons, the sunflower crop decreased by more than 50% to 540 000 tons, soya bean crop by 19,7% to 151 000 tons and the dry bean crop by 5,3% to 72 004 tons. The decrease in the production of these products could mainly be ascribed to poor price expectations (domestic and international), high input costs and high stock levels.

The estimated area planted to wheat for 2000/01 is 851 700 ha, which is an increase of 18,6% compared to the previous season. There was an increase of 50 000 ha in the Western Cape and 70 000 ha in the Free State. The area planted to barley decreased by an estimated 23 910 ha (23,5%) to 77 790 ha. Barley is now also planted in the Northern Cape, with mainly experimental plantings in the Free State and Eastern Cape. The area planted to canola decreased by 12% to 22 025 ha, while the area planted to sweet lupines increased by 11,6% to 21 205 ha.

Following good rains, and expected higher yields in irrigation areas as a result of cooler weather conditions, the wheat crop is expected to increase by 13,3%, from 1 722 000 tons in 1999/2000 to 1 951 650 tons in 2000/01. A crop of 684 000 tons is forecasted for the Western Cape, 647 500 tons for the Free State and 270 000 tons for the Northern Cape. The barley crop for 2000/2001 is expected to be 161 800 tons, an increase of 74,7%, canola 26 525 tons (up 15,3%) and sweet lupines 25 510 tons (up 96,2%).

Favourable weather conditions contributed to an estimated increase of approximately 2,9% in the cattle herd, from 13,58 million in August 1999 to 13,97 million in May 2000. Some farmers held back calves that were born in the first part of 2000 and did not market them but fed them to build the herd as a result of an expected large maize crop and good grazing conditions. Goat numbers also increased, by 0,9% to 6,52 million, and pig numbers by 0,5% to 1,54 million, while sheep numbers decreased from 28,68 million to 27,69 million. Continued thefts, vermin and sickness, as well as the low wool price, were contributing factors to the decrease in sheep numbers.

Economic review

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