Milk
The major
milk producing countries in the world are the USA, the former USSR countries,
India, Germany, France, Brazil and the United Kingdom, contributing
approximately 64% of total world milk production. Total world milk production
increased steadily from 540 million tons in 1995 to an estimated 564 million
tons in 1999, an increase of 4,4% over a period of four years.
Milk
production in South Africa makes a minute contribution to world milk production,
but is the 4th largest agricultural industry locally in terms of gross value.
Milk is produced in nearly all regions of South Africa, with the Western Cape
contributing 25,0% to total production, KwaZulu-Natal 19,0%, Free State 16,3%,
Eastern Cape 14,3%, North West 12,5% and the remaining provinces 12,9%.
Local production of milk decreased by
11,1% between 1998/99 and 1999/2000 (March – February), resulting in a 0,7%
shortfall. Producers reacted more sharply to price decreases in the previous
year and production therefore declined at a faster rate than expected. Local
consumption during 1999/2000 was under pressure of the declining personal
disposable income of consumers and the increasing consumer debt.
Imports of
dairy products decreased substantially from the high level of imports during the
period 1995 to 1997. During 1999, the products that were imported the most were
whey and cheese, which contributed 19,0 and 16,8% respectively to total imports
of dairy products. The producer prices for milk increased by 5,0%, from 110,9
c/ℓ in 1998/99 to 116,4 c/ℓ in 1999/2000.
|
Year |
1995/96 |
1996/97 |
1997/98 c/ℓ |
1998/99 |
1999/2000 |
|
Producer
price |
90,5 |
110,8 |
125,3 |
110,9 |
116,4 |
Prospects
It is expected that the local production of milk will decrease by 1,3% or more during 2000/01, while local consumption is expected to increase slightly (by 0,4%) during the same period. This could result in a decrease in surpluses. The producer price of milk is expected to increase as the surplus decreases. Imports for 2000 are expected to be higher and exports lower than during 1999 due to stock levels and the expected lower local milk production.